How Apple could screw up iPhone launch

By Wilson Rothman

The narrative is set for Apple's iPhone event Tuesday: Tim Cook, Apple's new CEO, will attempt to fill Steve Jobs' shoes by unveiling not one but two iPhones, a future-leaning iPhone 5 with slimmer body, larger screen and better everything, and a new $99 variant of the iPhone 4, made with cheaper parts.?

Trouble is, beyond the fact that there will indeed be an iPhone-related Apple press event ? which I will be covering, live and direct ??none of these facts are confirmed.?

And from certain corners of the rumor mill, the shiny new redesigned iPhone 5 could be a mirage, and we may just be in for a slightly improved iPhone 4, dubbed iPhone 4S. But if that were the case, Apple could be in trouble.

How they'd screw up
It's been about 16 months since the last iPhone came out on AT&T, and nine months since it hit Verizon Wireless. According to assorted polls, anywhere between 40 and 50 percent of people shopping for smartphones right now are holding out for an iPhone. Analysts are betting on Apple moving more than 100 million iPhones in 2012, according to AllThingsD. To put it another way, whatever Apple introduces, they will sell a ton of, even if it's made of popsicle sticks and duct tape.?

Live Poll

What does your gut tell you about the iPhone launch?

• 162194

  There will be a newly redesigned iPhone 5, plus a cheaper iPhone 4.

  65%

• 162195

  There will be an upgraded iPhone 4S, plus a cheaper iPhone 4.

  35%

VoteTotal Votes: 3826

But although Apple makes more money on their phones than any competitor could ever hope to, and doesn't have to share the spoils???or the spotlight???with partners, its user base isn't as great as Android. If Apple wants to be the rich man's phone maker, they can do that forever, but if Apple wants to be the dominant mobile platform, they must continue to baffle the competition with innovation.

Because of the longer wait, because of Android's majority global market share, and let's face it, because Steve Jobs is no longer helming the company, Apple has to hit it out of the park.

To get realtime coverage at Apple's iPhone even tomorrow, follow Wilson on Twitter or visit msnbc.com's Technolog, where he and the team will be posting live. Following the event, he'll take questions on Twitter, and do a more formal live chat later in the week.

Baseline requirements
There is a massive list of things rumored to be in a new iPhone, but it comes down to three specific requirements: It must be at least slightly slimmer than the iPhone 4. It must have a 4-inch screen. And it must be called the iPhone 5.?

Though, as I said, none of the details are confirmed as they have been in the past, there is very little room for doubt that any phone Apple launches tomorrow will have the same dual-core processor found in the iPad 2; that it will have an 8-megapixel camera (probably one made by Sony); and that it will be a "world phone," capable of global roaming whether you're on AT&T or Verizon.

In the second tier of speculative attributes, you have some uncertainty, but the existence of "near field communication" won't make or break the device, nor would a curved screen or some other potentially gimmicky design twist. And though faster 4G mobile networking is all the rage with Android phones, it's all but confirmed that Apple won't go that route until next year.

Beyond that, we definitely need to see that second, cheaper phone, though, as something that closely resembles the pre-existing iPhone 4, it may not be featured on stage.

One big rumor that would help Apple tremendously would be the arrival of the iPhone on Sprint. Sure, the No. 3 carrier isn't exactly growing like mad, but the Sprint customers who stick around do so because the pricing is better, and they are happy. AT&T doesn't have a great reputation for quality. Verizon does, but it comes with a correspondingly high price tag. While we've effectively confirmed that T-Mobile won't be getting an iPhone in 2011, we're not ruling out Sprint. (Especially now that the Wall Street Journal has reported Sprint's anteing up $20 billion to get into the iPhone business.)

Not just about the hardware
To date the speculation has been about the hardware, and that's justifiable. But Apple's big 2011-2012 move actually has far more to do with software ... and services.?

The iOS 5 has many design features that directly compete with Android, BlackBerry and Windows Phone. A pull-down tray of notifications is all but ripped from the Android OS, and the iMessage is basically the same thing as BlackBerry Messenger, but with iProducts. Amen, I say. Lord knows companies are always ripping off Apple ideas.

One dark horse on the software side is the rumored "Assistant" voice command system, which is probably an aspect of the new iPhone but may be something that other iOS devices will take advantage of. Though its features ?? voice search, speech-to-text, verbal directions, etc.?? sound extremely Google-like,?it is based on original work from a company called Siri, which Apple acquired last year. (Read some further details on that at 9to5Mac.)

And let's not forget about iCloud, which is where Apple's energy must be focused, and where much of the mystery still lies. How well will they execute the free mail service? Well enough to compete with Gmail? Will Photo Stream best both Flickr and Facebook at their own photo-friendly games? And are the pay-as-you-go cloud media services enough in the face of subscription services from Amazon and Netflix?

Even if all we get is a jacked-up version of the phone that's out now ? it's still the best?looking phone on the market ??it'll be an exciting year for Apple and its customers. But without a new crown jewel, a newly designed phone that makes competitors tug their collars like cornered cartoon characters, Apple's "magical" reputation???and sales???could start to dip.

Catch up with Wilson on Twitter at @wjrothman, or on Google+. And join our conversation on Facebook.

Source: http://technolog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/03/8121219-how-apple-could-screw-up-iphone-launch

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